Aside from their prominence, Patek and Rolex have almost nothing in common, which goes a long

James Schulz, Ultra-Complicated wristwatch with four subsidiary dials indicating phases of the moon, c. 1930.

way toward explaining why both are so coveted while other first- tier Old-World companies such as Vacheron Constantin and Audemars Piguet are second-tier collectibles. “If you were looking for the best and most complicated watches in the world, you went to Patek Philippe,” says Bonhams & Butterfields Los Angeles expert Charles Tearle. “Rolex had a reputation for the most reliable mass-produced sports watches.” Each was the ultimate status symbol in its own domain, and, quips Tearle, “everyone always remembers the winner, not the runner-up.”

Price range may also play a role, Schaerer points out. “If you’re looking at collectible Pateks, prices start at $15,000 to $20,000 and go up to infinity. With prices starting in the $2,000 to $10,000 range, Rolex is accessible to many more collectors.” The sheer size of the Rolex market has made the brand less predictable than Patek and more sensitive to trends. For instance, as large stainless-steel sports watches have become fashionable in the past several years, the Rolex Daytona—a chronograph (or stopwatch) that retailed in the 1970s for $600—has escalated in value from $12,000 in 2004 to $30,000 and up today. A midsize gold Rolex bubbleback from the ’50s, on the other hand—which was the wristwatch to own in the ’80s—has held steady at $10,000 to $15,000 for two decades.

More dramatic even than the success of the Daytona has been the recent ascent of Panerai, built with a Rolex movement for frogmen in the Italian navy during World War II. “Ten years ago, nobody could imagine wearing a watch like that,” Schaerer recalls. “It was just a big, bulky military watch, and $5,000 was a strong price.” In December, Antiquorum sold the rare circa-1943 “Nijmegen Bridges Watch,” made for Italian navy commandos, for $61,360. Schaerer attributes the exponential growth partly to changing tastes, but also credits the re-emergence of Panerai as a brand in 1997. “People started collecting the limited editions of the new Panerai, and, once you’re a collector of the new Panerai, you start thinking, well, what could be better than to wear an historical one?”

The effect of new watches on their vintage counterparts is not limited to Panerai and Rolex. New companies specializing in unprecedented complications, such as Franck Muller and F.P. Journe, have generated interest in the vintage complicated watches of Patek, Vacheron and Audemars. And, from Breguet to Blancpain, Corum to Jaeger-LeCoultre, lavishly marketed high-grade watches have directed collector interest to their vintage forebears. “In particular, Cartier is having a surge,” says Aaron Rich, head of watches at Sotheby’s New York. “Cartier is so aggressive with the marketing of their modern watches—the Roadster and the Santos 100—that it generates a lot of collector interest in vintage models.” As an example, he cites a Cartier Grand Tank Cintrée, an elongated rectangular watch from 1930 that he recently sold for nearly $35,000. Another Cartier Tank, an Americaine from the late ’40s, sold at Bonhams in June for $111,500, more than four times the $22,500 to $27,500 estimate.

The reason, Tearle, explains, is condition. Purchased new in Paris, the watch was almost immediately put in a vault and remained untouched until the 2006 sale. “I’ve been in this business for more than 16 years, and it’s the best example I’ve ever seen,” he says, noting that his estimate was based on what the watch would be worth if it had been gently worn.